Injury/Health Incentives
Certain contracts contain incentive structures tied to a player’s health and injured list-time during the term of the contract. These structures are also covered in the summary of Options and Incentives, as injury contingencies appear to be most often dealt with through incentives tied to options. Unsurprisingly, these structures are found most often in contracts for players with significant injury history.
As can be seen below, one notable aspect of these structures is that the Dodgers are the team most likely to have them included in player contracts, including in contracts for players without significant injury history. One possible explanation for this is that the Dodgers are a large-market, high-paying team that have recently been a consistent World Series contender, and can accordingly have the market power such that players will agree to these terms.
There are two ways in which injury and health issues are reflected in incentive structures.
1. Upside for Players
Contracts can award players potential upside in the form of compensation or additional rights if the player achieves certain injury or health-related objectives during the contract:
SP Drew Rasmussen’s 2025 contract with the Rays has a 2-year guarantee with the third year being a club option for the 2027 season. This club option starts at $8 million and can also escalate by up to an additional $12 million, with a possible $6 million coming from number of games started in 2026 (tiered structure at 8, 12, 16, 20, 24 and 28 starts) and the other potential $6 million coming from Rasmussen’s health during the 2026 year. This aspect of the incentive is conditional upon Rasmussen passing a physical for the 2027 season, and will escalate the value of the option based on his health in the 2026 season as follows: (a) $2.5 million if he spends more than 75 days on the injury list for arm-related reasons or spends more than 105 days on the injury list for any reason; (b) $3.5 million if he spends 75 or fewer days on the injury list for arm-related reasons and spends 105 or fewer days on the injury list for any reason; (c) $4.5 million if he spends 45 or fewer days on the injury list for arm-related reasons and spends 75 or fewer days on the injury list for any reason; or, (d) $6 million if he spends 15 or fewer days on the injury list for arm-related reasons and spends 45 or fewer days on the injury list for any reason. Rasmussen has had three Tommy John surgeries, with the most recent being in 2023.
SP Clayton Kershaw’s 1-year 2025 contract with the Dodgers had significant incentives for games started and days on the active roster, the latter of which indicates concerns regarding his health. Kershaw had the potential to earn $8.5 million in total from incentives, standing at over half of his guaranteed $16 million. $4.5 million was from the active days bonuses, which gave Kershaw $2.5 million for 30 days active and $1 million for each of 60 games active and 90 games active. Kershaw achieved all of these incentives. Kershaw had experienced recurring injuries throughout his career, and particularly later in his career.
IF Justin Turner’s 1-year 2025 contract with the Cubs had incentives tied to plate appearances and days on the active roster, with Turner able to earn $250,000 for each of 120 and 150 days on the active roster. Interestingly, Turner was relatively healthy in years immediately prior to the contract, and this active days incentive may have instead been aimed at potential concerns regarding his age (40 at the start of the 2025 year).
RP Aroldis Chapman’s contract with the Boston Red Sox, starting in the 2026 season, guarantees 1 year, with a 2027 vesting option that vests if Chapman pitches 40 innings in 2026 and passes an end of year physical. As with Turner, Chapman had generally been durable, but will be 38 at the start of the 2026 season.
2. Upside for Teams
Contracts can also be structured in the converse to the contracts above, with the team receiving additional rights based on certain injury contingencies during the term of the contract. All of these are structured in connection with option rights and are also referred to as reverse incentives in this project. At least two of these contracts have reverse incentives that may have been triggered due to player injury in 2025:
SP Nick Pivetta’s 4-year contract with the Padres, starting in 2025, has a very team-friendly version of this structure, under which the Padres gain the right to a team option after the second year of the contract (prior to the 2027 season) if, at any point in 2025 or 2026, Pivetta has a specified injury or related surgery and spends 130 or more consecutive days on the injured list in any season or one-year period. This 2027 team option would essentially allow the Padres to terminate the contract two years early in the event that this injury clause is triggered. The Padres will also gain a team option for the 2029 season if, between July 1, 2026 and the end of the 2028 season, Pivetta has a specified injury or related surgery and spend 130 or more consecutive days on the injured list in any season or one-year period. Pivetta missed almost a month of the 2024 season due to strain in his right elbow.
SP Blake Snell’s 5-year 2025 contract gives the Dodgers a heavily discounted team option at $10 million (roughly 1/3 of his average annual salary during the first five years of the contract) for the 2030 season if Snell spends 90 days or more on the injury list for a specific injury (the specific injury was not reported). Snell has a history of injuries and spent 119 days on the injury list in the 2025 season, raising the possibility that the team option is now in effect if the injury specified in the incentive structure covers the reason for his injury list stints in 2025.
RP Justin Martinez’s 5-year pre-arbitration contract with the Diamondbacks, starting in 2025, has two club options for a 6th and 7th year, followed by a possible team option for an 8th year if, at any point during the contract, Martinez has elbow surgery or spends a specific number of days on the injured list (number of days unreported). The team option would be for $3 million, which is roughly equivalent to how much Martinez will make through the first 5 years of the contract, but less than half of what Martinez will make in the optional 6th and 7th years if exercised. Martinez had Tommy John surgery in 2021 and, in June 2025 went on the IL for a second Tommy John surgery. This means that the Diamondbacks likely gained the club option for the 8th year of the contract.
SP Garrett Crochet’s 6-year contract with Red Sox, starting in 2026, has a possible team option for a 7th year if Crochet spends 120 or more days on the injury list for a left arm injury during the contract. The team option would be at $15 million, just over half of Crochet’s average annual salary during the contract. As with Yamamoto’s contract, the injury occurrences can also serve to negate a player option in the contract. Crochet missed the 2022 season after Tommy John surgery and has had shoulder issues in his career.
RP Tanner Scott’s 4-year contract with the Dodgers, starting in 2025, has a possible team option for a fifth year if Scott suffers a defined injury (not reported). The team option would be at $5 million, less than half of what he will be making in any other year of the contract. Interestingly, Scott did not have any significant history of arm injuries and was not as old as Chapman or Turner, whose contracts are discussed above.
OF Teoscar Hernandez’ 3-year 2025 contract with the Dodgers with a fourth year team option. However, if Hernandez has surgery for a specific injury (unreported) and spends 75 days on the injury list, the fourth year option becomes guaranteed and the Dodgers gain a team option for a fifth year. Hernandez does not have a significant injury history.
RP Edwin Diaz’s 3-year contract with the Dodgers, starting in 2026, has a possible team option for a fourth year if Diaz has a specified injury between 2026 and 2028 and does not end the season or post-season healthy or if Diaz undergoes a specific surgery (neither the injury or surgery reported). The team option would be at $6.5 million, less than 20% of what Diaz will earn on average in the first three years of the contract. Diaz missed the entire 2023 season with a freak injury to his patellar tendon and missed some time in 2024 due to shoulder impingement, but does not have a major injury history otherwise.
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year contract with the Dodgers, which technically sits outside the collected data for this project as it started in the 2024 season, is also notable as it has a possible team option for a 13th year if, between 2024 and 2029, Yamamoto has Tommy John surgery or spends 134 consecutive service days on injured list with a right elbow injury. The team option would be at $10 million, roughly 37% of his average annual salary during the contract. These injury occurrences would also serve to negate player options in Yamamoto’s contract. While there were reports of Yamamoto pitching through elbow and back injuries in high school, but did not seem to have a particularly notable injury history in Japan.
The Dodgers’ contracts with Scott, Hernandez, Diaz and Yamamoto all illustrate that the Dodgers’ are using these reverse incentives as a form of insurance policy in high-value player contracts, even for players who do not have a notable injury history.